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从蜂拥而至到热潮褪去,可能从来没有开发者真正爱过地方棋牌

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原作者:梁子
文章来源:游戏葡萄
“那些中了彩票的人,是很难做一个好游戏的,钱赚得太快了。”

步入2018年,棋牌市场就没有过安宁的日子。大大小小的案件蜂拥而至,如果说年前有人猜测这只是例行的“KPI”任务,那么近3个月来的各种破案抓捕信息和多个红头文件的下发,则让棋牌从业者集体失了声。

特别是抓获联众公司包括执行副总裁在内的36人的消息,以及前阵子那份《棋牌类网络游戏管理》中要求15家棋牌大厂6月1日终止《德州扑克》运营的通知,对于那些还在棋牌领域边界试探的厂商来说,只等来了短短一年的美好时光就似乎要翻篇了。

一系列事件发生后,葡萄君的一个“棋牌运营行销群”,悄悄地改名为了“桌上智力竞技运营行销群”。棋牌,正在从热点的标签,变成恐慌。

桌上智力竞技群

事实上,风暴来临之前便早有预兆。根据诺诚游戏法朱骏超律师的说法,棋牌公司在2017年初还仅仅是需要他们帮忙制订合同模板防范政策风险,但从年中开始,部分厂商与他们的接触越来越频繁,合规需求越来越高,被公安要求协助调查的情况也开始增多。今年1月底,葡萄君一位做经济侦查警察的朋友发消息告诉我,今年公安部将棋牌赌博已经列为了全国重点打击的犯罪之一。

棋牌游戏被重点打击

赌——“我们做房卡棋牌进这扇门的时候,左手边是赌博工具,右手边是游戏。”

棋牌遭遇的滑铁卢,都还要从“赌”说起。

继年前龙港麻将、丹东棋牌等数起房卡棋牌落网。德州扑克也随之曝出公安部指挥吉林公安机关成功侦破涉及7省30市利用“德友圈”APP开设赌场案,抓获四川成都某网络公司多名主要犯罪嫌疑人,涉案赌资流水逾10亿元。

以及今年4月震惊棋牌圈的联众游戏案:

公安部指挥河南、北京、广西等地公安机关联合行动,成功侦破北京联众公司棋牌事业部利用网游平台开设赌场案,抓获联众公司执行副总裁秦某、棋牌事业部负责人徐某、大客户部负责人周某及“银商”张某等36名犯罪嫌疑人,冻结涉案资金6500余万元。
经初步审查,2010年以来联众公司棋牌事业部下属“德州扑克”项目涉赌资金收入累计达3.35亿元。
如托·约·登宁所说,“如果有50%的利润,资本就会铤而走险;为了100%的利润,资本就敢践踏一切人间法律;有300%以上的利润,资本就敢犯任何罪行,甚至去冒绞首的危险。

地方棋牌在一年多前,的确称得上是高利润的行业。通常盈利的团队利润都是超过50%的,不少团队在头两个月里甚至达到80%也并不罕见。加上资本的追捧,为一众厂商蜂拥而至提供了充足的理由。

前棋牌创业公司联合创始人庞磊对我们说,“我们做房卡棋牌进这扇门的时候,左手边是赌博工具,右手边是游戏。”一直以来棋牌都离钱太近,也离赌太近,它可以作为家庭娱乐的传统节目,同样也可以作为破坏家庭和睦的武器。

对于多数游戏行业转做棋牌的人来说,棋牌游戏仍然是游戏而已。它承载的不过和其他游戏一样,通过不断升级美术、UI,强化网络稳定性来更好地满足用户需求。但是快速升温的棋牌行业,也让另一类人捕捉到了机会。

一位上市棋牌公司高层告诉我们:“我看了两家有明显违法行为的企业,他们实际上是一些在线下赌博的人,现在到线上来利用了网络工具来实施赌博行为。他这个罪的根源在于组织赌博这件事情,而不是在于说你去做了一个游戏平台,然后做一个房卡游戏,这个是不一样的。”

但情况也并非如此简单,房卡棋牌因为存在大量小规模团队,推广又高度依赖微信群的野蛮增长方式。所以,工作人员早期陪玩便早已成为公开的秘密。很多小团队在产品启动阶段,都是建好微信群,然后全体在里面陪玩。随着真实玩家的增多,很多团队开始慢慢退出,然而与日益增长的诱惑也致使仍有很多人没有退出。

一个普通的房卡麻将团队,一般要管3000-5000人的微信群。多的甚至将近上百个群。然而这样的玩法在去年底也引起了微信官方的注意,一个400-500人的微信群,如果每1-2分钟就发一个红包,将被微信视为有赌博性质的群,并将直接封停。

不光如此,一些性质严重的还会封群主ID。这对于一名代理人员来说,他建的每个群都是他的关系,而一旦封号则前功尽弃。

为了应对微信的封锁,开始有厂商动起了自己做聊天软件的念头。从建群到发红包,这个聊天软件几乎实现了微信能实现的一切功能。只不过,在微信里面发红包,还可能是单纯的发红包。可要在自己的软件里发红包,就真的变成赌场了。但是房卡棋牌的模式使得它必定会是社群运营极其重度的模式,在这道门槛面前,有多少人会选择止步呢?

有不少人觉得麻将模式太慢,很难赚到钱,便依靠麻将做用户,然后引流给旗下的扎金花、牛牛这样的产品拉流水。这些玩法都来钱更快,也金额更大,却也最终引来了公安和文化部的关注。

而德州的玩法就更加野蛮一些。就线上买量成本来说德州一个用户已经超过了100块,加上德州的DAU通常也不会太高,这就逼得许多德州厂商不得不在ARPU上更多的想办法。很多厂商的做法是上下抽水。玩家进入牌局要买单,赢了钱还要被厂商抽取5%左右。然而仅仅是抽水这件事情,就足以定性为赌博了。

对利润的追逐,和大量厂商不得不亲自介入的推广方式,使得棋牌几乎被定了性。那么棋牌的推广究竟还能有变数么?

量——“棋牌的产品经:3分产品7分技术90分地推”

地推是早期棋牌发家的内核,闲徕用上千人的地推团队快速占领了市场,也一把催熟了资本。在业内对棋牌团队的成功秘诀一直有这么一个说法:3分产品7分技术90分地推。

“现在这些新美大送外卖的,一天累的要死才赚多少钱?他一听说棋牌这么赚钱,拉一个房卡用户,躺着赚钱。所以现在很多地推团队起来了。”一位棋牌从业者告诉我们。

2017年许多成功的团队都是依赖地推做了起来。地推带来的高效获取用户的方式,让后来者争相效仿。特别是如东北这样的地区,仍然主要靠地推来推广。微乐、科乐、吉祥三家公司依靠疯狂的地推基本包揽了整个东北的棋牌市场,并且这三家相互持股形成了竞争壁垒。

在圈内,大家几乎公认了,棋牌的线上流量是属于几家传统棋牌厂商的,比如腾讯、JJ、途游等,而对于主打房卡模式的地方棋牌来说,线上推广高昂的成本是多数团队无法负担的。而线下这样脏活累活的苦是传统棋牌公司吃不了的。这一点的竞争空间,也成了各家争取最激烈的地方。

根据一家北方棋牌公司的说法,线上买的用户留存只有30%,线下来的用户留存有60%。“线下的这些人都是精准的用户。很容易知道村里谁在玩麻将,拉他们来扫二维码就行了。”

竞争的加剧是进一步放大地推影响的关键。在2017年初,国内在一个几十万人口的县城可能只有3-5家的厂商在竞争,而到了今年,几乎大一点的县级市都没有低于十家的了。

某棋牌大厂高管也表达了类似的看法:“其实从去年下半年开始几乎没有空白市场,你在中国任何一个县里面都可以找出十家以上这样的公司。空白区域已经完全没有了,后面是一个很残酷的竞争,从产品到技术到运营到推广,是一个全方位的竞争,所以你的团队如果有短板的话,那你就竞争不下去了。”

而在政策的严管之下,依赖地推的团队,在今年必须要找到可以安身立命的办法。

一家创业公司高管说:“出事以后,我们后来马上调整了策略。我们产品都开发完了,本来想做某个地级市,现在只能停掉,去做另一个地级市的产品,因为那个地级市我们有保护伞。

对于我们来讲,我们只干有保护伞的地方棋牌,其他地方不碰。那一个地方就够我们活着了,其他的没必要。”

另一家做浙江地方麻将的团队也表示:“有些人还不听地方保护伞的话,就有可能在一个接一个地倒下。所以我们就特别地担心,就把之前做好的产品扔掉了。对于我们来讲,有多大的保护伞就做多大的业务。”

钱——“17年我身边出去创业棋牌的,没听说有谁没拿到天使投资的。”

庞磊给我们算了一笔账,以十几个人的团队(在棋牌团队已经算大团队了)为例,一个月的开销怎么也需要二三十万,一年下来就要两百万。小团队的话,一般能拉到的天使投资也就两三百万。

因此,怎么在一年时间生存下来成为了大多数公司要算的账。

同为创业公司的小C,他的产品原本算是蒸蒸日上,流水已经做到了千万级。但是却因为搞了个代理商大会天天被人骂,因为宁愿自己不赚钱也要把别人代理商挖过去,被同行骂的很惨。

大公司出身的他知道要如何打价格战。他原本希望以极低的价格补贴,把别的产品代理抢过来,迅速把盘子做大,然后再在当地树立另外一个品牌,等其他家都死掉,市场上就保留自己这两家,然后就可以涨价了。

但是烧着烧着他发现,以前这么烧可以,房卡是不可以的。因为以前做的是阳光下的产业,做外卖做O2O,是有社会价值的。但是做棋牌游戏,本质是为了赚钱,不仅要做擦边球,还要把别人饭碗给端了。哪个做投资的愿意给你钱让你砸?

所以他即便有了这个想法,却也没有特别大的付出行动。

棋牌从火热到遇冷,也一年半的时间,也似乎到了考验很多团队现金流和融资能力的时候了。庞磊同样也面临过这样的问题:“17年很好拿,18年不好拿了。17年我身边出去创业棋牌的,没听说有谁没拿到天使投资的。”

爱——“真的有人爱棋牌吗?”

在经历了棋牌行业的大震荡之后,许多人选择了离开。有的是因为政策,有的是因为钱,有的则是找到了新的风口,比如区块链、小游戏。在采访的近十位采访对象里,也有超过一半的人在此文发出的时候,已经离开了棋牌领域。

我问了很多人一个问题:“真的有人爱棋牌吗?”因为在一个领域发生震荡的时候,还有足够多的人愿意留下来,至少证明它是具有长期价值的事业。

面对这个问题,多数人给我的答案是,“哪有人爱做棋牌啊,都是爱钱。”“那些中了彩票的人,是很难做出一个好游戏的,钱赚得太快了。”

我当然相信有人会真的热爱棋牌,那些传统棋牌厂商坚持做了十几年,说没有热爱,是不现实的。可是面对地方棋牌的火热,人们风风火火的来,又稀稀拉拉的离去。又很难让人相信有人是真正为了热爱地方棋牌而加入进来的。

我问一家房卡棋牌大厂高管:如果现在有一个想要进入棋牌领域的人,你会给他什么建议?

他告诉我们:“如果是朋友的话,我会劝他不要进来。如果不是很熟,我可能会问他几个问题,第一个你现有的资金能够承受多长时间,如果他的资金就能承受一年,我会劝他不要进来。第二个我会问你的研发团队是不是可靠的,你的推广团队有没有基础,如果你没有基础,你一定要找到非常合适的合伙人,一个是做产品,一个是推产品,你不能有短板。第三个我会劝他们去做一个自己相对熟悉的行业,选一个自己有感情的市场,可能做起来的希望会更大一些。”

 

付费点登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述,互联网棋牌有风险,投资需谨慎!

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