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风声鹤唳下,2018年棋牌游戏业的真实状况

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本文由棋牌游戏网付费点转载自游戏陀螺,原文由白日猫供稿。

导语:

“现在的棋牌公司都是走在刀刃上。”

2018年棋牌业:“接下来还会有越来越多的人进去”

  • 联众游戏旗下德州扑克被查,抓获36人,涉赌资金达3.35亿元。
  • 浙江警方抓捕房卡棋牌游戏涉赌团伙,涉案金额高达亿元,12名成员被抓获。

最近,棋牌业都被这多宗重磅涉赌事件所刷屏。而游戏陀螺也走访了不少棋牌厂商,其中深圳一家棋牌游戏厂商高层H表示:“从2017年9月到现在,这大半年的时间,可以说是这三年以来最大的一波严打。”

对于2018年棋牌业的展望,另一棋牌游戏公司高层X也表示:最大的变化就是会抓越来越多的人。他指出,过往在市场上,有相当部分的棋牌游戏涉赌,“国家已经很懂了,一看游戏就知道是不是赌博的。”

“去年有个朋友一年挣一千多万,今年也挣了小几百万,但他下面的代理都被抓了几十个。

德州扑克引起的棋牌游戏风波

现在风声更紧了。”——不难看出,2018年整个棋牌业将处于一个严厉的整改阶段。

“德州要封的风已经吹了有两年。德州关停的关键点:不赌钱基本没法玩。牛牛、炸金花等定性为赌博,德州不定性为赌博的话,反而才是奇怪。现在关停的都是线上德州,至于线下德州,则需要看最新情况。

房卡模式绿色化:框架内则合法,想像以前那样裂变“凉凉”

H认为,房卡模式基本是“凉凉”——“代理较难进行推广,线上俱乐部也定性为非法,用以前的方法进行裂变走不通,代理推广虽然可以,但不能告诉用户怎么进行变现。”

“而且根据规定,我的个人理解:你是推广的不能玩游戏,你玩游戏的不能开房间,这是一个连锁的,等于把之前的闲徕模式堵死了。但除了闲徕模式都可以干,其实房卡还是安全的。只是以前的裂变模式属于非法。

H认为,棋牌突然在2016、2017年变成全中国的裂变,需要把这个空间缩小,但又不能完全打死,“相比金币等其他模式,我认为国家主要推广的还是房卡模式——    转账方式可以有,但不要有代理,不要到处宣传,希望推广方式是应该比较绿色的,跟竞技比较搭得上钩的,同时奖励不能太浮夸,不能搞得像赌场。通过这两方面的定位,是希望与鼓励国内的用户与运营商,都有比较绿色的推广方式与环境去娱乐。”

他认为:“国家已经给了个框架,你只能在怎么样的模式下进行房卡推广。同时也希望代理模式也转化成一种比较正常、良性的模式,比如做地推、转运营等。

棋牌游戏地推

棋牌电竞:有了突破

从2017年开始,越来越多的厂商进军棋牌电竞。一家做棋牌电竞的公司负责人A指出:“从2017年下半年到现在,这个模式实际上让大部分厂商都感觉非常难受··· ···对比以前的现场结算模式,棋牌电竞的用户体验其实更差,需要在平台比赛,而且只能是奖品,无法提供现金。”他指出,这也从根本上决定了棋牌电竞无法像房卡一样裂变。

但来到2018年,情况有了一定的变化。H指出,相比之前的“不能以任何实物方式对比赛进行奖励”的规定,现在把这条路开了一个小的口——可以有小额奖励,比如电话卡,但数额不能太大。

同时,H认为,比赛模式是棋牌目前的唯一宣传出口,“代理不能组织任何的团体会议进行推广,媒体不能挂任何有关棋牌的广告。”

棋牌游戏电竞化

市场出现了越来越多的金币游戏

游戏陀螺调查了解到,金币休闲游戏,这是目前市场最多涌现出来的新产品。据业内人士W统计,最近两个月上架最多的游戏是捕鱼,棋牌游戏一共上架了60多款捕鱼。

“捕鱼是比较通用的金币休闲游戏,有用户量、有充值量”,他认为接下来市场将来萌芽更多金币休闲游戏,他同时指出,很多大厂的小游戏把金币休闲游戏做到活动里面去。“像斗地主、跑得快是合法的,有的厂商把金币游戏做到这些游戏中的活动里面去。”

据了解,金币的利润是房卡的三到五倍,但W认为,金币模式长远来说还是具有风险。

金币与房卡模式

现在的棋牌公司活得怎么样?

游戏陀螺了解到,2017年下半年新进场的公司,无论是做电竞还是房卡,都非常难做,基本处于“等死”的状态。

但在2017年之前已经立得下脚的棋牌游戏公司,基本还是运营稳定。X指出,他身边的一家处于市场领先、第二梯队的房卡棋牌公司,增长幅度依然很大,达到几十万DAU,“地推很给给力,今年预估至少会有两个亿的营收。”

游戏陀螺总结:活得怎么样,要看什么时候开始做——并且,从去年年底到现在,出现了比较多的棋牌公司并购案。H分析:“原因是在这个严打过程当中守不住了,其实利润都在。”

而据一家资深的棋牌OEM代工公司的高层S介绍,他们的业务也大受影响:“我们现在Q1、Q2的业务量现在基本是维持上一年年末,以前每年都是增长的,更惨的是我听到其他同行有的一个月都没有开单,还好我们还有一个品牌在。”不过他也指出,如今的情况比之前的明朗与明显好转,“比赛、金币、休闲这三块需求带动了我们业务。”

政策或已趋向于明朗与稳定

H认为,棋牌业目前看起来虽然风声鹤唳,但政策其实趋向于明朗与稳定,“框架已经列出来,该下架的下架,该整改的整改,政府会一直留意哪些公司犯规,该罚的罚,该关的关,该抓的抓——政府其实是大力推动大家去做绿色竞技,短期三个月内政策基本不会变。

他同时指出,海南自由贸易区也会对棋牌业带来一定影响,海南定位为人文艺术娱乐的省,会开放线下的一些竞技赛事,有些公司或将允许拿到牌照,经营体育竞猜,这在未来几年内将会更加明了。

“现在的棋牌公司都是走在刀刃上。业界其实整体向前,但过程会复杂一些。”

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